Here's the truth of the matter, as we enter a year when Cincinnati voters will choose a mayor and nine city council members.
When it comes to being competitive inside the city limits of Cincinnati, the Republican Party is sucking wind.
Look at the numbers:
The Democrats, at this point, have three candidates for mayor: incumbent John Cranley, council member Yvette Simpson, and labor lawyer Rob Richardson, who, up until recently, was president of the University of Cincinnati board of trustee.
The Republicans? Zero candidates for mayor.
Yes, we are well aware of the fact that Republican council member Charlie Winburn – who is prevented by the city's term limits law from running again this year – has taken out petitions for mayor. But taking out petitions and filing petitions are two different things.
Hamilton County Republican Party chairman Alex Triantafilou, who should know, has told WVXU his party does not have a candidate for mayor yet. And, he said Friday, it has been months since he talked to Winburn about anything and says he has "no idea" what Winburn is doing.
How about Cincinnati City Council?
So far, the Democrats have four incumbents running for re-election – Chris Seelbach, P.G. Sittenfeld, David Man and Wendell Young.
Hamilton County Democratic Party chairman Tim Burke rattled off the names of eight Democrats he said are either running now or considering a run. They include Greg Landsman, who ran in 2013 and is now helping get the Preschool Promise program up and running; community activist Michelle Dillingham, who also ran four years ago; Derek Bauman, a vocal advocate of expanding the streetcar system and public transportation in general; and Laure Quinlivan, a former council member who lost her seat in 2017 at the same time voters were approving her charter amendment to go from two- to four-year council terms.
Tamaya Dennard, a former aide to Sittenfeld, is actively running now. Sedrick Denson, a former council aide to Young, is considering a run. The names of community activists Brian Garry, Kelli Prather and Ozie Davis are also on Burke's list of potential candidates.
There are likely to be more.
There is no question that the Cincinnati Democratic Committee (CDC), made up of the party's precinct executives from around the city, will end up endorsing a full slate of nine candidates.
The Republicans?
They will struggle to meet their goal of five council candidates. Five, because if all of them were elected, Republicans would have a majority on council.
That is, if all of them are elected. Which they won't be.
Why?
Because there are simply not enough Republican voters left in the city to elect a majority to city council. Or win a mayor's race.
A whole lot of Republicans who, decades ago, gave the GOP majorities on city council, are long gone. Many of them have passed on; many others have simply moved – out into the Hamilton County suburbs, or places like Butler and Warren counties. Or nice warm spots like Florida or Arizona, where they don't have to shovel snow and put chains on their tires.
The Republican Party hasn't run a mayoral candidate since 2009. Then, after searching for a well-known, well-funded candidate, they settled on a virtual unknown - Brad Wenstrup, a doctor of podiatric medicine and an Iraq War veteran, who was running for office for the first time.
Wenstrup worked hard at it; and managed to get 45 percent of the vote against Democratic incumbent Mark Mallory - not a bad showing for a candidate who started out as a complete unknown.
Three years later, Wenstrup challenged U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt in the GOP primary in the Second Congressional District and won, doing what is next to impossible in congressional politics - unseating an incumbent.
Of course, in that heavily GOP district, Wenstrup won the general election and is still serving in the House.
But even Triantafilou concedes that candidates with Wenstrup's appeal are hard to come by.
At this moment, there is no GOP mayoral candidate and only two Republican candidates for city council – the incumbent Murray and Jeff Pastor, a teacher at a charter school, who has told WVXU he will make a formal announcement on Jan. 31.
Two down, three to go.
Triantafilou said he has talked to others about the possibility of running for council.
"It's just hard to find credible candidates who are willing to do this in a city where the base of Republican voters is so small,'' Triantafilou said.
So just how Democratic is the city?
November's presidential election is a good example.
Donald Trump won Ohio by a comfortable margin, but Hillary Clinton won Hamilton County – the third time in a row that Hamilton County has gone with the Democratic candidate for president.
She won the county, but Clinton simply trounced Trump inside the city - 100,866 votes to 28,797 for Trump.
All of this has Triantafilou saying he will focus his attention this year on the suburban government races; and on recruiting future candidates for county offices and judgeships.
"We're not going to walk away from the city,'' Triantafilou said. "But I'm realistic about it. It's very difficult."
